The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the “Renewable Energy Market Report (2019)”. According to the report’s renewable energy market forecast, the installation of solar photovoltaic systems on homes, commercial buildings and industrial facilities will grow significantly over the next five years and change the way electricity is generated and consumed.
According to the IEA forecast, global renewable energy will grow by 50% from 2019 to 2024. The additional 1,200 GW (equivalent to the current U.S. total) was driven by cost reductions and government policy efforts. Solar photovoltaics will account for 60% of growth. The share of renewable energy in global power generation will rise from 26% currently to 30% in 2024.
By 2024, distributed photovoltaics will account for nearly half of the total photovoltaic market, with industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics becoming the main market, accounting for 75% of newly installed capacity in the next five years. The installation of household photovoltaic systems in households is expected to double to approximately 100 million households in 2024, and countries such as Australia, Belgium, California, the Netherlands and Austria will become the fastest growing markets for household photovoltaics.
The declining cost of photovoltaic power generation has driven the pace of solar photovoltaic deployment. In many countries, the cost of distributed photovoltaic power generation is already lower than retail electricity prices, and according to IEA forecasts, it will further drop by 15%-35% by 2024. The future development potential of distributed photovoltaics is huge, but collaborative planning is needed to balance the interests among photovoltaic system owners, consumers and enterprises. Through policy support and effective management, the global installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics is expected to reach 600GW in 2024.
Photovoltaics achieves strong rebound in renewable energy installation growth
By 2024, the installed capacity of renewable energy will increase by 50%, with distributed photovoltaic power increasing at the same rate as onshore wind power. Due to favorable policy information and increasing competitiveness, the IEA’s forecast this year is 14% higher than last year.
In the next five years, China’s distributed photovoltaic installed capacity will develop into the world’s first, the EU market momentum will recover, and other countries such as India will develop into emerging markets
Economies of scale and a better match between photovoltaic power generation and electricity demand in industrial and commercial rooftop applications make industrial and commercial photovoltaics more energy-efficient than household photovoltaics.
The continued decline in the cost of photovoltaic power generation has widened the gap between it and retail electricity prices, and the economic feasibility of distributed photovoltaics is becoming increasingly attractive to individual investors.
As policies continue to improve, costs continue to fall, and the scope of application continues to expand, the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics will double by 2024. However, from a technical perspective, this will only account for 6% of the global distributed photovoltaic development potential.
Countries need to carry out new policies and market reforms to find a balance among various stakeholders, including distributed photovoltaic owners, energy companies and electricity consumers.
